Modeling group

The modeling group of the Marine Research Institute has been created in order to apply new modeling techniques to the Lithuanian coastal waters and, especially, to the Curonian Lagoon. We use open-access models and tools to perform various environmental studies, such as: pollution analysis, climate change, landuse change, ecosystem services analysis, etc. We develop the necessary tools and adapt the models to suit the immediate needs of the research question, including model coupling.

In particular, the modeling group of the Marine Research Institute has the following objectives:

• Create excellence in the field of numerical modeling of the coastal zone and transitional waters for Lithuania.
• Train and educate students and researchers in the development, application and interpretation of numerical model and their results.
• Integrate the knowledge from other groups into a comprehensive model of the Curonian Lagoon that can be used by other researchers.
• Bring together modelers and non-modelers and show the advantage of using models that can help the interpretation of observations and supplement them with other useful data.
• Bring together scientists from different areas (physics, biology, chemistry) to build a modeling framework of the Curonian Lagoon that follows the parameters from source (drainage basin of the Nemunas) to sink (Baltic Sea).
• Create a framework of models that will be able to compute, forecast and predict important parameters, also as a tool for identification of pollution and environmental impact.

Applied models and process simulation:

• Hydrodynamic processes – the finite element hydrodynamic model SHYFEM is applied for simulating water flows, salinity, water temperature, level and residence time in the Curonian Lagoon and the territory of the southeastern Baltic Sea. With the help of this model, it is possible to evaluate saline water intrusions into the lagoon, the outflow of lagoon water into the sea, as well as to monitor the dispersion of point source pollution.
• Sediment transport – SHYFEM model is coupled with the sediment model SEDTRANS05 that is used to model inorganic suspended sediment concentration and bottom changes that includes analysis of erosion-accumulation processes, bottom critical shear stress and grain sizes.
• Ice thickness dynamics – 0D (zero-dimension) ice thermodynamic model ESIM2 is used to simulate ice thickness in the Curonian Lagoon, which can be applied to other water bodies.
• Ecological processes – nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) box model AQUABC is coupled with hydrodynamic model SHYFEM and covers the Curonian Lagoon and Lithuanian coastal zone area.
• Hydrological and water quality processes – SWAT/SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is a basin-scale model used to simulate the quality and quantity of surface and ground water and predict the environmental impact of land use, land management practices, and climate change. SWAT/SWAT+ is widely used in various environmental and regional management studies. We use this tool to model the entire Curonian Lagoon watershed as well as other case studies in the Europe and USA.
• Field-scale processes – SWAP (Soil, Water, Atmosphere and Plant) simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in unsaturated/saturated soils; it simulates the flow and transport processes at field scale level, during growing seasons and for long term time series. The model is applied to model individual agricultural areas and predict nutrient leaching and productivity.
• Landuse change – CLUMondo (Land Cover and Land Use Change Model) is one of the most frequently used land use change models globally, allowing the spatially-explicit preview of potential future land conversion in response to different land demand scenarios. We predicted the possible changes in land use on the coastal area of Lithuania and in the basin of the Minija River using this tool.
• Ecosystem models – Food web models (Ecopath with Ecosim) represent how living organisms and organic matter are interconnected through the trophic process. Using these models, it is possible to evaluate not only the static food web in an ecosystem, but also using time-dynamic or other modules present changes. With this tool, the food web of the Lithuanian coast and the food web of the Spanish Mar Menor lagoon were modeled. Currently, we are working on a time-dynamic module for the analysis of the Lithuanian coastal food network and the changes that have taken place in it over the past 15 years.
• Probabilistic models – Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)

The modeling group's research activities are aimed at providing a better understanding of the environment and its variability, in order to identify challenges, opportunities, and the best ways to address them. Our group's research findings can be used to inform policies and decision-making related to environment, natural resources management, risk assessment, and sustainable development.

Team:

Dr. Hans Georg Umgiesser

Dr. Ali Ertürk

Dr. Jovita Mėžinė

Dr. Natalja Čerkasova

Dr. Rasa Idzelytė

Dr. Artūras Razinkovas-Baziukas

Dr. Rasa Morkūnė

Dr. Petras Zemlys